Scenario 1. Dense construction
Build density: 23,000 sq m/ha
Investment performance: CAPEX = 98 bln RUB, IRR = 21.7%, NPV = 4.1 bln RUB, payback period = 15 years.
This project reaches breakeven point in the medium term but requires analysis of impact on infrastructure due to increase by several times of build density.
Scenario 2. Breakeven point
Build density: 22,000 sq m/ha
Investment performance: CAPEX = 88 bln RUB, IRR = 18.7%, NPV = 630 mln RUB, payback period = 17 years.
This scenario represents the threshold for project payback and is not the most effective in terms of return on investments.
Scenario 3. Finding a balance
Build density: 20,000 sq m/ha
Investment performance: CAPEX = 77 bln RUB, IRR = 14.6%, NPV = -3 bln RUB, payback period = 19 years.
A balanced scenario with reduced density. Preference is given to apartments for sale, which improves financial performance (though still not positive), but entails shortage of commercial areas.
Scenario 4. Minimal density
Build density: 18,000 sq m/ha
Investment performance: CAPEX = 65 bln RUB, IRR = 8.9%, NPV = -7.7 bln RUB, payback period = 19.5 years.
The scenario is close to Frunzenskaya Embankment in terms of density. It creates a comfortable environment with moderate building height and increase in the number of district residents by only 25%. The downside of low density is reduction of apartments for sale, resulting in less attractive investment ratios.